First off, let me say Thank You to all who participated in the Switch 2 2026 Summer Direct Predict-a-ton! Then let me extend an extra 'Thank You' to all who have been so patient waiting for these results. Life is very busy and draining and it takes specific circumstances for me to spend any extended time at my computer so I can actually run all the analysis/calculations and write this up. It has now been a whole year since the Nintendo Switch 2 launched and we had been on a heavy drought in terms of core Nintendo Direct experiences. The rumors started swirling about a possible E3-esque classically-timed Direct for this year and such the latest Predict-a-ton was born! There wasn't much time for people to participate but we managed to have 9 participants this year (though outside of NegativeWorld.org there were 20 others, but I keep those stats separate). It was so wonderful for you all to jump in and I appreciate everyone doing it on short notice.

With this Predict-a-ton we started similarly to last year's pre-Nintendo Switch 2 one where I had some questions to ask you. The announcement shortly thereafter kind of nullified some of those but I made the best of it. For transparency on how that went, I still allowed people to guess the Presentation Length for less points once it was estimated in the Nintendo post. The Treehouse question was nullified for people once they announced that. The other two questions persisted as they still were a mystery till the event began. After that the Predict-a-ton went on as normal, with four categories and then the franchise picks. I like the idea that I did last time where it's not about picking franchises that had game announcements but it's just any appearance of a franchise. Makes it a bit more fluid and surprising, IMO. So now… that first question…

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How long will the presentation last?

Results: 56 minutes

Every Nintendo Direct has a length but this was a question I never thought to ask until last time. Now it'll be a staple, I think. However it certainly benefits when there's more time before Nintendo flat out provides an estimate. Prior to the announcement, guesses ranged from as short as 45 minutes to as long as 60 minutes. After the announcement, guesses naturally ceased as there wasn’t much drive to anymore. The result ended up being just over 56 minutes, which I round down to 56 minutes.

Nobody guessed this exactly. However GameDadGrant was the closest pre-announcement guesses at 55 minutes.

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Is there also a Treehouse accompanying this?

Results: Yes!

Next I asked whether or not there was a Treehouse as part of the whole ordeal. Nintendo spoiled this early as well by flat out promising one. So if you guessed beforehand and said Yes, you got +5 points. If you said No, you got -5 points. If you guessed after Nintendo announced it, you got 0 points and the question was nullified.
Of the 4 people who managed to get this question in prior to Nintendo's notice, 50% of participants thought a Treehouse was coming. So it was split right down the middle.

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What franchise starts things off?

Results: Rhythm Heaven

Not everyone decided to guess here but a couple of you did. 44% of participants guessed a franchise here and wagered points for it. However 0% got it correct! Nobody expected Nintendo to start their long-awaited, highly-anticipated, Nintendo Direct with... Rhythm Heaven!? It was quite the curveball but with Nintendo mere weeks away from the newest release in the franchise, they figured they'd get this one out of the way now and make one more attempt at attracting eyes to it.

We actually learned some neat things here! It wasn't just another trailer for the game, spoiling all the games within, but instead it was showing us new modes which have never been in the franchise prior! What a delight! As someone who IS planning to pick this up very soon, I was delighted indeed. So what did people pick then?

We had a Splatoon (me), a Star Fox, a Super Mario, and a ‘New’. Rhythm Heaven snuck under our noses.

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Who kicks things off?

Results: Yoshiaki Koizumi

This question may not appear in the future but I thought I'd see how it'd go. I gave people the opportunity to guess which esteemed Nintendo mega-mind was going to start the show. This was optional and I provided three names but you could also wager just 'someone else' if you wanted. Two-thirds of us did pick someone. Here's how it went down.

22% of participants guessed Yoshiaki Koizumi.
22% of participants guessed Shigeru Miyamoto.
11% of participants guessed Shinya Takahashi.
11% of participants guessed Somebody Else.
While the remaining 34% of participants opted not to place a guess at all.

Now on to the categories…

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Expected Categories:

With the first category we had the Expected news. These were items that were more likely, if not most likely, to be revealed by Nintendo in their recent presentation. Here’s what came true (or didn't). I'll put an individual note if something came true but I'll likely touch upon the rest anyway in a less direct fashion. Additionally I’ll put after each category listing a simple bracket which will say how many of the 9 people voted for it).

1.) Splatoon Raiders gets a new trailer: (8/9) Nintendo just had to put one of these in there, didn't they? The game did get a new trailer but then it received an announcement that there would be a dedicated Nintendo Direct soon. That'll air just this week. With the game coming out in just a few weeks, this was was pretty likely.

3.) New Joy-con colors: (0/9) This is a staple category at this point. It's almost always part of the game but funny enough it's not often coming true. In fact, nobody voted for this! Yet, alas this time we did in fact see some new colors. It's just a shame that because of the nature of the console, they've been just changing the joy-stick ring and inner plastic piece when it comes to colors. Thus, it never really stands out like it used to.

4.) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 gets a Switch 2 Edition: (5/9) More than half of the participants guessed this one. Not only did this one come true, but it came with friends! All three core numbered Xenoblade games are getting Switch 2 editions. I admit... I thought the other two had them already...

6.) Release Date for Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave: (8/9) This one was picked a bit more and for good reason. There was a lot of expectation that this title would get dated as people thought it was coming soon. September 17th is the big date. Less than three months away.

9.) Another Switch 2 Edition of a Switch game (i.e. Bellabel Park): (6/9) Straight-forward result here too. Xenoblade Chronicles 3 is a Switch game and it got a Switch 2 edition announced. Number four and nine were essentially the same situation. Now can we please get a Yoshi's Woolly World Nintendo Switch 2 edition?

10.) Rhythm Heaven Groove trailer drops: (6/9) Just over half of the participants voted for this one. I'm curious what the logic was there. It's coming out this coming week so personally I thought it was a lock. One more blowout to advertise the game. What I did NOT expect was that it would open the show. Nintendo continues to surprise us.

Now that leaves the items that didn’t happen. There was no New Pokemon from Pokemon Winds and Waves revealed (1/9) and frankly that shocked me. I was pretty convinced they'd show off the starters here but either the Pokemon Company wanted control or they just aren't quite that close to the release date yet. Maybe this game really will be a late 2027 title. I was the only poor bastard who chose this. There also was no New game [which] focused on Joy-con Mouse functionality (3/9). It's funny how Nintendo comes up with these features but then relies almost exclusively on 3rd parties to pull their weight on them. Unless the next Mario controls exclusively by mouse-controls, I feel like we'll continue to see less and less. Though... I would love a Mario Is Missing resurgence with mouse-controls... I always knew that game as a PC game anyway.

While many new amiibo are on the way there were no New amiibo announced (7/9). Though clearly most people thought there would be. Lastly, we did not get a Professor Layton and the New World of Steam release date (1/9). I pondered if they'd pad the show out with this but I guess not.

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Rumored Categories:

This set of predictions are less expected than the first group but there was still buzz about these topics ahead of the show. I do my best to ignore rumors with Nintendo so I was not clear on how confident folks were, except for one anyway. I won't go into much of a rant but leakers... ya suck. Let’s start by seeing what came true.

2.) The Legend of Zelda: The Ocarina of Time remake revealed: (9/9) What is the benefit someone gains from being a leaker? While this reveal was super cool and enticing... it was truly sullied by someone who thought they would steal the surprise by leaking that this existed. It hurts the enjoyment for so many people. It ruins the reveal and marketing impact for Nintendo. It just sucks for everyone around except for the person who is the fun ruiner.

That said, this is highly enticing. I can't wait to see more. While I don't particularly crave remakes, I think it is really cool to see a game of this caliber getting a remake of this caliber. Star Fox shows that HD-remake-Nintendo can really amaze us. I just hope that there are a lot of surprises in this one. I'd be open to even changing certain plot points and making it kind of like a remixed version but I don't think that'll be in the cards. I just want it to feel a bit like a new game and not just an exact remake of the game I've played plenty of times through.

It’s impressive also that everyone at Negative World voted for this. Nine out of nine!

4.) Pokemon Pokopia DLC announced: (2/9) I didn't vote for this, but I guess I should have. I didn't because I honestly didn't expect it. There wasn't really any chatter about it ahead of time. The only reason I put it in the game was because it seemed logical enough. So it was sort of my own rumor, lol,... one I didn't have the guts to choose. The DLC mileage may vary but it has a lot of people interested, especially because it has a free-update component to it. That price though... on the pay DLC... yowch.

So only two items came true here in the Rumored category. So much of what people thought might show didn't. There was no Mario Kart World DLC Announced (5/9). I really don't get why they're not investing in that more. I guess because the previous DLC for 8 Deluxe was mainly to bridge the gap to this one. So they don't want to keep being the DLC franchise? Clair Obscur Expedition 33 comes to Switch 2 (4/9).... well no it doesn't. Not yet anyway. Stellar Blade came instead. So the spirit of the question came true but it wasn't the game we focused on.

There was no Super Smash Bros. announced for Switch 2 (2/9) or Animal Crossing for Switch 2 announced (0/9). I really wanted these to be true but I didn't vote for them myself. Just seemed too much like a pipe dream. Very few people thought they might show. I wonder if they're still not that far away... where are they at in their planning and/or execution?

Over two thirds of us thought that New NSO game(s) [would be] confirmed (7/9). This is usually an easy way to get people excited but nope... not a peep. Duskbloods Gets a Release Date (6/9)? Nope, but it got a test run announced. Perhaps they need time to find out how many bugs need squashing there. The last two categories were not well expected either. There was no New Pikmin/Luigi's Mansion game revealed (1/9). We don't know if there's Super Mario Maker 3 incoming (0/9). Again, maybe these are in the works but nothing was shown. For me that was actually what kept this from being an astounding Direct for me. I wanted just one more big-name franchise to appear. Whether that was Smash, Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Luigi's Mansion, Mario Maker, or something else... just one more. Alas, we shall wait further more. Now, of course we did see Xenoblade Genesis, which is huge news from a Nintendo-focused franchise, but like Veruca Salt, I wanted more.

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High-Risk Categories:

As we enter this section we’re finding categories that are further and further from reality. There have been plenty of picks from past Direct's but this time, NONE of these came true. Sorry y'all but Nintendo did not surprise us with any of these.

We learned that it isn't true that Star Fox has additional stages or unannounced game modes (3/9). It's just a true remake, straight up. This was one of the two most chosen picks here. The other was that a New 3D Mario game [was] coming by Spring 2027 (4/9). If that is true, we weren't shown it here. It's likely not true. Maybe next year will be the time to see it appear.

Four items here had no votes whatsoever. No faith in these at all. Participants were certain that there would be no Switch 2 Lite-type device Announced (0/9). They also did not expect Tomodachi Life to be patched to allow shared content (0/9). I admit that it was quite unlikely for both. With the way components are going right now, and with the youth of the core Switch 2, there's not much reason to think a lite would appear. However once Xbox and Playstation are both in their high console cost places later this year... maybe introducing a cheaper Switch 2 in the form of a Lite might be one heck of a way to stick it to the competition. Patching Tomodachi Life though? They made their decision and they're not going back.

I didn't pick it, but I do really want it to be true that YouTube finally arrives on Switch 2 (0/9). They're apparently working on it... I watch and listen to a lot of YouTube and I would appreciate the ability to bring it to my big nice Switch 2 screen. I also wondered if they would bring the NSO Music App Within Switch 2 (0/9). Nobody voted for these either. NSO Music on-console is a good idea, IMO, but I ponder if they'd ever do it. Why not integrate it into the core console and let people listen to music like a personal jukebox?

Items six and seven were a pair of pseudo rumors that almost feel comical at this point. Once again we did not find a Twilight Princess and/or Wind Waker Re-Release (1/9) nor did we find that Nintendo DS And/Or 3DS [are] Coming To NSO (1/9). Both, I think, are still possible, but we will probably never see it coming if and when it finally does. It makes sense that only one person voted for each of these, and not the same person.

That just leaves two more. It's probably way too early for Sakurai's Next Game Revealed (2/9), but I appreciated that two people swung for the fences on that one. Then, whether there would be More v-tuber-like avatars for Nintendo Voice Chat (2/9)... two people did vote for it but perhaps this just wasn't the avenue for showing off any future surprises. Hopefully someday... as people are having a ton of fun with Fox McCloud and his crew right now. GVG did a whole podcast through that.

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MEGATON Categories:

These items are the biggest and most exciting possible things to come from the Nintendo Direct, or at least that’s the intention. These categories almost never come true but when they do you can win big points! This time, nothing came true. That's heartbreaking because all of these would be so dang cool to see happen! Let's start by looking at the three categories that nobody picked. Even these ideas couldn't get anyone to back them.

Themes are coming to the Switch 2 UI (0/9)... big nope. Nintendo is probably never giving us back the 3DS magic we once knew. I will cry myself to sleep wishing for a Switch 2 version of Nintendo Badge Arcade. Then when I wake up I will wonder if we ever see that Smash Bros. Melee gets a remaster (0/9). I'm not sure any Smash Bros game will see a remake or remaster. I suspect Nintendo would rather just make a new one, however until we see how they handle Smash Bros. in this current generation... I think such fantasies aren't so far off. Also there was the hope that Grand Theft Auto 6 [would be] Confirmed for Switch 2 (0/9). GTA 6, I guess, could theoretically come to Switch 2 but I suspect Rockstar isn't particularly focused on it right now, if it’s even playable on the console. What an incredible announcement that would have been.

Then three categories only had one pick each but they would have been incredible to see. There was the hope that Earthbound [would be] Coming To Switch 2 (New or NSO) (1/9). I essentially meant Mother 3 here but nonetheless Earthbound itself did not come to the NSO service. We once had it on the Virtual Console so I guess it's not unheard of but Mother 3 itself just isn't likely to ever come out as an official release. Then there was the hope of another shocker with a Chrono Trigger Remake/Remaster (1/9). I still think this one is actually more likely than most... but just not now. Lastly there was the one I wanted perhaps more than anything, to find out that Wave Race is coming to Switch 2 (1/9). We got the tease of the gameplay from the Nintendo Switch Sports Resort.. but it's such a disappointment that they haven't made a proper new one since the GameCube. Maybe Miyamoto just doesn't have his heart in that anymore as he's aged. I believe he had a significant hand in the others.

The last four categories all maxed out at three votes each, though no single person voted for all four of them at the same time. There was no Major milestone announcement (i.e. Year of Luigi, Mario 35th, etc) (3/9). I almost included this on a technicality but the Donkey Kong crossover with Super Mario Bros. 40th wasn't particularly what I had in mind with this. Then was the idea that the Next Main-Line Zelda [would be] Revealed (tease or otherwise) (3/9). Since I strongly felt that the rumor of the remake was true, I didn't think they'd have this happen but you never know. I could see this happening next year though once the remake is out in the wild. It's been so many years already since TotK that I think we might get a new tease sooner than we think. Also with three votes was that a New 2D Metroid is officially in the works (3/9). I do think this is true but it's just not the time for them to show it. Lastly there was The Legend of Zelda movie teased (even as a future direct announcement) (3/9). The movie is something like less than a year away, so it wouldn't have been unheard of for them to spend time showing this, but chances are they'll shadow drop a specific trailer Direct like they did for the Mario films.

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*deep breath* Phew, that’s a lot to review. I won’t breakdown the full franchise picks but I will note which franchises were NOT picked by anyone. So of all the participants, nobody thought the following franchises would appear... and they were right! We didn't see... Excite, F-Zero, Kid Icarus, Luigi’s Mansion, Mario Party, Paper Mario, Princess Peach, Punch-Out!!, Super Mario Maker, Tomodachi Life, nor Wave Race. There were plenty more missing this time but at lease someone voted for those.
Before going into the accolades, let’s finally find out who won this thing! We had three people avoid the negative scores… (which is somewhat typical to be honest). I hope ultimately everyone had fun! Here's how it shook out!

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Predict-a-ton Results:

1.) GameDadGrant: +21 points

2.) ShadowLink: +5 points
3.) Secret_Tunnel: 0 points

4.) DrFinkelstein: -12 points
5.) TriforceBun: -23 points
6.) LegendOfAlex: -32 points
7.) Mop it up: -36 points
8.) TheBigG753: -40 points
9.) InfinityWave: -58 points

If you didn’t get as high as you’d hoped, don’t fret! Nintendo Directs are incredibly unpredictable despite us all trying our best! I want to again thank you all for participating! May your Nintendo wishes come true nonetheless! Now time for the accolades.

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The ‘Fence Swinger’ Award
The widest possible point spread and got a positive score!

GameDadGrant with a +43, -43 possible spread

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The ‘Brawl Tripper’ Award
The widest possible point spread and got a negative score!

InfinityWave with a +145, -145 possible spread

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The ‘Pre-Order Bonus’ Award
The category or categories picked the most that did come true.

Expected: Splatoon Raiders gets a new trailer (8/9) and Release Date for Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave (8/9)

Rumored: The Legend of Zelda: The Ocarina of Time remake revealed (9/9)

High-Risk: None! Bummer!

MEGATON: Super None! Bummer 64!

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The ‘Captain Blubber’ Award
The category picked the most but didn’t come true.

Expected: New amiibo announced (7/9)

Rumored: New NSO game(s) confirmed (7/9)

High-Risk: New 3D Mario game coming by Spring 2027 (4/9)

MEGATON: Next Main-Line Zelda Revealed (tease or otherwise) (3/9), New 2D Metroid is officially in the works (3/9), The Legend of Zelda movie teased (even as a future direct announcement) (3/9), and Major milestone announcement (i.e. Year of Luigi, Mario 35th, etc) (3/9)

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The ‘7th Generation Booster’ Award
Categories nobody picked, or the one with the lowest selected rate.

Expected: New Joy-con colors (1/9)

Rumored: Super Mario Maker 3 incoming (0/9)

High-Risk: Switch 2 Lite-type device Announced (0/9), YouTube finally arrives on Switch 2 (0/9), Tomodachi Life to be patched to allow shared content (0/9), and NSO Music App Within Switch 2 (0/9)

MEGATON: Grand Theft Auto 6 Confirmed for Switch 2 (0/9), Themes are coming to the Switch 2 UI (0/9), and Smash Bros. Melee gets a remaster (0/9)

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The ‘Link’s Crossbow Training’ Award
Best accuracy in their voting choices, aka most correct picks.

GameDadGrant with 85% of options correctly selected

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The ‘Switzerland’ Award
Anyone who managed to Net 0 their score.

Secret_Tunnel with 0 points

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The ‘I Thought So’ Award (brought to you in part by Big Brain Academy)
The game franchise which was chosen the most and was shown in the Direct.

Fire Emblem, Zelda, Splatoon, Star Fox (8/9)

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The ‘Silk Song’ Award
The franchise chosen the most which was not shown.

Mario Kart (6/9)

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So that's it... finally we've reached the end of this journey. Thank you for participating and thank you for reading! I could spend all day spitting out more stats on this thing but I think it's time to take a break and get some time in with The Adventures of Elliot before Rhythm Heaven Groove drops this week. Be safe, be happy, and game on!!

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