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Will either the 3DS or the NGP sell more units than their predecessors? [poll]
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The 3DS will outsell the DS (7/21 votes) |
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The NGP will outsell the PSP (3/21 votes) |
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Both 3DS and NGP will surpass its predecessor (2/21 votes) |
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Neither product will surpass its predecessor (9/21 votes) |
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What say you, NW? Call me a pessimist, but I think neither will do as well as its predecessor. 3DS has the 3D going for it but I don't think it will capture the DS audience that Nintendogs and Brain Age built. Also, price. The NGP, well, there are still many unknowns (like the price), but I find it hard to imagine it will fare much better than the PSP did. I think that at best, it may capture a large audience in Japan late in its life, once the Japanese developers start firing on all cylinders for the thing. But in the West, I think it will suffer from the fact that a lot of the PSP purchases were done with the intent of hacking the thing. If the NDG is less hackable, I'm sure hardware sales won't be as high. Plus, those people arlready have a piece of hacked hardware they can play SNES roms on, they don't need another. I also think the increased competition from phones will hinder both systems. URL to share (right click and copy)
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01/27/11, 20:10 Edited: 01/28/11, 02:36
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Good question.
I think the price of both handhelds will be a barrier to some, perhaps even many.
Word on the street is that the 3D effect on the 3DS is so impressive that it sells the system to anyone who gets their hands on it, so that's a plus.
I think it's the old bugaboo we hear about Wii 2/Wii HD, where some analysts wonder how you upsell a new piece of hardware to a market that is casual in nature. All those "non-gamers" who purchased a DS for BrainAge and Nintendogs, will they be interested in 3DS when their DS works just fine?
Another problem is Apple. People are ga-ga over iPhones and iPads, both of which are multifunctional devices that provide just about everything someone would want on the go (media, gaming, texting/phoning, internet, etc.). Sony and Nintendo's new handhelds may do some of that stuff, but I doubt it will come close to the quality found on Apple's portable devices. So what's the hook to get people to put down their iPhone in favor of 3DS / PSP2?
I think both companies have a tough road in front of them, but Sony much more so than Nintendo. |
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I voted for the first option, but you make a strong case.
It really would be hard for the 3DS to capture lightning in a bottle with the casual crowd again. I do think it will generate its own sort of lightning, but it would be hard to top the emergence of Nintendogs/Brain Age/etc. in today's smartphone era. Then again, do those games really sell the system anymore? It seems like more gamey games have been selling the system for the last 2-3 years. Not new games, mind you. Old-ass titles like New Super Mario Bros. and Mario Kart. The DS needed that boost after its weak, uncertain launch, but the 3DS will be launching from a position of power, like the PS2. Maybe a steady stream of good games (including NSMB and Mario Kart, of course) will be enough.
I don't see the NGP outselling the PSP, which actually had incredibly strong sales for the type of potentially niche platform it was, especially in Japan. I can't imagine Japanese devs will want to break the bank on NGP (hate that name) development, though. I'm sure they'll be comfortable transitioning over to the 3DS, if Monster Hunter comes with.
I also agree that most of the post-launch Western interest in the PSP was due to piratability. Ever since the newer, harder-to-pirate models came out, hardware sales have dropped considerably, and software sales never matched the hardware sales when they were booming. |
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