Call me a pessimist, but I think neither will do as well as its predecessor. 3DS has the 3D going for it but I don't think it will capture the DS audience that Nintendogs and Brain Age built. Also, price.
The NGP, well, there are still many unknowns (like the price), but I find it hard to imagine it will fare much better than the PSP did. I think that at best, it may capture a large audience in Japan late in its life, once the Japanese developers start firing on all cylinders for the thing. But in the West, I think it will suffer from the fact that a lot of the PSP purchases were done with the intent of hacking the thing. If the NDG is less hackable, I'm sure hardware sales won't be as high. Plus, those people arlready have a piece of hacked hardware they can play SNES roms on, they don't need another.
I also think the increased competition from phones will hinder both systems.
I agree. They will be more expensive, and outside of Japan, I'm not sure if people really care to own a dedicated gaming machine these days. Maybe kids and hardcore gamers, but I think most people are satisfied with their smart phones.
Hmmm... might be hard to outdo their predecessors, especially in Nintendo's case. The DS was pretty damn innovative, and I'm sure the 3D screen advantage will disappear as we start seeing them in phones.
But I don't subscribe to the idea that Apple is going to crush the traditional industry players. I think that both devices will be successful and get a lot of good third party support. Square-Enix would rather port Final Fantasy VII to the NGP or 3DS and sell it for $45 than have to compete with the cheap software on the iOS.
I think the price of both handhelds will be a barrier to some, perhaps even many.
Word on the street is that the 3D effect on the 3DS is so impressive that it sells the system to anyone who gets their hands on it, so that's a plus.
I think it's the old bugaboo we hear about Wii 2/Wii HD, where some analysts wonder how you upsell a new piece of hardware to a market that is casual in nature. All those "non-gamers" who purchased a DS for BrainAge and Nintendogs, will they be interested in 3DS when their DS works just fine?
Another problem is Apple. People are ga-ga over iPhones and iPads, both of which are multifunctional devices that provide just about everything someone would want on the go (media, gaming, texting/phoning, internet, etc.). Sony and Nintendo's new handhelds may do some of that stuff, but I doubt it will come close to the quality found on Apple's portable devices. So what's the hook to get people to put down their iPhone in favor of 3DS / PSP2?
I think both companies have a tough road in front of them, but Sony much more so than Nintendo.
I'm making the prediction no one else has the balls to make- the 3DS will outsell its predecessor. Its going to be quick out of the gate and the 3rd parties will finally start contributing with some quality software to match Nintendo's.
I think sales for both will be less due to the proliferation of smart phones.
But I think 3DS will still sell more than the NGP, due to price point* and kid-friendliness, you know there are going to be a shit-ton of Cartoon Network games on the 3DS...
*Assuming the 3DS will drop to sub $200 once Nintendo has made a buttload of money selling to the early adopters. The NGP is gonna be $400, or more, and will probably never drop to a kid-friendly mass-market price. Sony is kind of shooting themselves in the foot again going ultra-high-spec.
I think both will sell less then their predecessors, though both will still be pretty successful devices. Smartphones have really changed the handheld market, as most casual players would much rather spend a few dollars for games on their cell phone or iPod Touch than shell out a few hundred bucks for a system and $40 per game, even if the majority of those smartphone titles aren't nearly as deep or rewarding as the average 3DS/NGP software.
I voted for the first option, but you make a strong case.
It really would be hard for the 3DS to capture lightning in a bottle with the casual crowd again. I do think it will generate its own sort of lightning, but it would be hard to top the emergence of Nintendogs/Brain Age/etc. in today's smartphone era. Then again, do those games really sell the system anymore? It seems like more gamey games have been selling the system for the last 2-3 years. Not new games, mind you. Old-ass titles like New Super Mario Bros. and Mario Kart. The DS needed that boost after its weak, uncertain launch, but the 3DS will be launching from a position of power, like the PS2. Maybe a steady stream of good games (including NSMB and Mario Kart, of course) will be enough.
I don't see the NGP outselling the PSP, which actually had incredibly strong sales for the type of potentially niche platform it was, especially in Japan. I can't imagine Japanese devs will want to break the bank on NGP (hate that name) development, though. I'm sure they'll be comfortable transitioning over to the 3DS, if Monster Hunter comes with.
I also agree that most of the post-launch Western interest in the PSP was due to piratability. Ever since the newer, harder-to-pirate models came out, hardware sales have dropped considerably, and software sales never matched the hardware sales when they were booming.
This was said on a discussion Destructoid had about the NGP: 'What we have with the 3DS vs. NGP is almost an exact rehash of the DS vs. PSP battle. The technically inferior system at a cheap price with a quirky, attention-grabbing gimmick versus raw, expensive power. With the mass market, cheap n' quirky beats expensive and powerful. That's one area where Sony is totally out of touch. It doesn't take an analyst to predict that the 3DS will trounce the NGP.'
That will be especially true if it does release at a higher price than the 3DS.
The only way I can see the NGP being successful is if its pricepoint is at the 3DS's or lower.
Yeah, I agree with the smartphones sentiment. A lot of people are satisfied with the free/99 cent bullshit games on the iPhone. You try reasoning with them as to why the DS/PSP is better for games, and they just fall back on the multi-functionality of smart phones.
It sort of seems like Nintendo intentionally made the 3DS more of a hardcore gamer's machine this time around.
Maybe...and why not? With such a mass audience entertained with the DS (including DS lite/i/xl) it's almost the perfect time to introduce something with a little more..kick. This could be a strategy used for the Wii's successor: Bring in a new expanded audience with something 'new' then bank off of it with something more advanced yet similar to the newly established gamer..
The DS has been around for awhile..I don't think the 3DS will outsell it for a few years but it has the potential to..I think any new Nintendo handheld does.
I have no idea about the psp2. I voted the 3DS will eventually outsell the DS. If the 3D is as good as everyone says it is and when word of mouth gets around and more people are able to actually see the thing in action its going to fly off the shelves.
I can understand people not thinking it will sell as well, esp. with the way the DS has sold. I think Nintendo is banking on the 3DS to be another Wii, esp. with Sony bringing out thier new portable.