|
|
|
A Nintendo community by the fans!
|
|
|
∧ |
Forum main |
|
|
So... how do you like Wii U's odds now? [roundtable]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
'Cause it sure seems like Nintendo is poised to prove all the naysayers wrong again. It feels like something's in the air. People seem more than ready to buy a new system, and the price seems to be palatable, at least to the savvy gaming consumer. Pre-orders are selling out incredibly fast, which will build hype and demand to stratospheric levels, especially if mainstream news starts reporting it and hyping up TVii. Even if NintendoLand doesn't have QUITE the viral impact of Wii Sports, it'll slowly reveal its charms, since it's a pack-in to the preferred model. Nintendo is also launching with at least one guaranteed megaton game (which looks to be of incredibly high quality, as well), so that should keep the early adopters happy. The Wii U version of BLOPS 2 might just be the best one, due to the sharper graphics and individually-screened co-op. That game will also get users going online right off the bat. The launch window lineup doesn't necessarily have the most raw quantity, but I think it shows some breadth in both the family-friendly and not-so-family-friendly categories, and there are some guaranteed hits/future classics mixed in among the dark (Ubisoft) horses. That, along with the building hype, should serve the system well and keep it hard to find, at least until the inevitable post-launch drought. But suppose, just suppose that third-party publishers also see these clear indicators early this time. And suppose that they decide to add Wii U to their multiplatform plans. It could alleviate the usual drought. And if we further suppose that these publishers actually want the money of these savvy, spendthrift early adopters, they could even support the system directly! Or continue making multiplatform PS3/360/PC/Wii U games a bit longer, to the detriment of Microsoft's and Sony's upcoming offerings. That still seems like a bit of a longshot, if we're talking about American publishers. Their current planned lineup could definitely be better. But for Japanese publishers, green lights and dollar signs should be all they see when they look at the Wii U. Having Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest as honored guests at the inauguration party will make for a pretty good fucking time for all. Regardless, the short-term success of the system seems all but guaranteed to me right now. You know, this would be a REALLY opportune time to pick up some NTDOY... Although it already went up, like, 11% in the last three days.URL to share (right click and copy)
|
|
|
|
|
|
09/16/12, 04:55 Edited: 09/16/12, 05:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Deerock69That doesn't necessarily mean much in the long run. The PS3 is going to end up selling half of what the PS2 did. And starting with the NES, every Nintendo home console sold less than the one before it until the Wii. I think it's borderline impossible for Nintendo to make a system that's straight up unsuccessful at this point, but I don't know that the Wii U is in the position to be as disruptive as the Wii was. It'll do fine regardless of whether or not it hangs with the Wii, though. Pre orders mean nothing. The 3DS has never been hard to find and it's trending in a positive direction after a gimpy launch. The PS3 had a pre-order rush and couldn't sustain itself through the generation. Besides, nobody is good at predicting things in the long run. A few years back it was not uncommon to speculate that the Wii would outsell the PS2, and it's clear that's never going to come close to happening now. To the question in the OP, I don't think any of the new info is sufficient to change my mind at all. I think the Wii U is going to do well, that the big third parties are going to continue to focus the bulk of their effort on the next gen MS system and that Sony's financial troubles are going to make the PS4 an interesting console to watch. PogueSquadron said:Is it truly fair though, to predict the success of a console or handheld at launch? Many of the greatest platforms of all time had really mediocre launches. The PS2? The XBox 360? The DS? Did any of these platforms have anything close to a compelling launch?
Like others have said, it's all going to come down to next year - I think the best predictor for how the WiiU will do will be in its 2013 software lineup. Nintendo has a HUGE opportunity to make a splash next year as other consoles (possibly) start to wind down. 2013 is a very important year for Nintendo to put out a lot of quality first party content, and secure third party exclusives. Maybe that, if anything, is the reason why the launch window to some is a little meh. Holiday 2012 is not the important year for Nintendo - 2013 is. Exactly. Launches mean very little absent data. Knowing that things are selling out without knowing the numbers they were working with makes everything we "know" almost completely irrelevant. Couple that with launches, generally, not being indicative of a whole lot? Yeah, my mind hasn't changed. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Some of these seem a little obvious, but I think the biggest questions that will determine the Wii U's future - other than what the competitors actually release and when - are these:
1) Will casual Wii-owners be interested in the Wii U at all? Personally, I sense a feeling of buyer's remorse from some of the people I know who bought the Wii. This breaks my heart as a Nintendo fan (and Wii fan) but I see where they're coming from. My best friend, who bought a Wii after playing Wii Sports and eventually sold it, told me the other day that Nintendo just didn't bring any games out for the system. He wanted more games like Wii Sports and he didn't feel he got them. Is this a widespread attitude? I don't know. But I think it's a fair point, for a certain kind of gamer. And they're not a small number of the Wii's original fanbase. My dad bought a Wii, for instance, but I don't think he's happy with that purchase, today. If he ever gets a Wii U, I'll be stunned. This is very different from the PS1 to PS2 changeover. It reminds me much more of the Genesis to Saturn one.
2) Where's the temperature on the standard hardcore audience? Has the G4 Generation finally boxed out Nintendo? That is, has Nintendo finally fallen so far behind that they can't catch up with teenagers/early-twentysomethings? The generation that grew up playing Halo and God of War, rather than Mario and Zelda... are they lost to Nintendo forever? And, if so, are we moving to an era when Nintendo really is only for us old guys and our kids? And, if that's so, what does that mean for Wii U sales? The shrill Bayonetta 2 reactions, while expected in the usual console war way, seem to have different tone than usual, to me. It was still Us vs. Them, but there also seemed to be a fire in the belly I hadn't expected. They sounded like heavy metal fans spilling ire on pop music. In other words, it's more than just a preference on where they want to spend their money. It's a lifestyle choice. Even as a big time SEGA fanboy, I never said Nintendo "doesn't make real games" or that releasing games on the SNES was "a sellout move". This is relatively new to me. Has 5-10 years of media chastisement actually raised a generation of Nintendo-haters? How deep do the Us vs. Them wells go? I wonder.
3) What do the pre-orders really mean? The Gamecube was the fastest selling system up to that time, after all. Nintendo fans are lifers. We're going to be there for the Wii U. But who comes after us?
4) Who is the Wii U really for? That's my big question. I look at it and I think, "They're not designing it with me in mind". Which is fine. They're under no obligation to think about me. But who IS it for, then? My opinion: Families. All this talk about it being more hardcore focused? BS. That Gamepad is there to give Mom something to do when junior is playing Mario. The question of the hour is whether families are going to get the Wii U Fever or not. After the long, slow death of the Wii, I rather doubt it.
5) What happens in Japan? On that, I have no insight. But if Japan chooses the Wii U over the next Sony product, then we could still be in Nintendo heaven, even if it falls behind in the West.
6) Third party reactions. Ports of old games won't cut the mustard. There will need to be superior versions of new games to even prick the ears of current 360 or PS3 owners. Will that happen? Ha. I wouldn't bet on it.
I want to add, I hope I'm wrong. I don't like being a Ninten-doomsayer. But I'm still not feeling it. In fact, the pricing scheme and paltry features announced at the Sept 13 Nintendo Direct actually make me less optimistic. And no one was more optimistic than me about the Wii. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@AnandI think for Durango we're going to see 2 skus, something like: Basic - 32GB memory stick - Kinect 2 - 1 controller - $299.00Deluxe - 500GB Hard Drive - Kinect 2 - 1 controller - headset - 1 month XBL - $399.00That's not exactly undercutting Nintendo, but it is offering a superior console (specs wise) for the same amount of money. If that happens I think Nintendo will be in trouble unless they respond with a price cut. Of course if Durango costs like $499 or something, then I think there will be enough of a difference where Wii U still seems like the better value, especially considering by next fall something like Metroid Rebirth or Super Mario Universe may be out! @kriswrightI'm really surprised at the $299 price point for WiiU, I thought for sure they'd hit that family-friendly $249 number... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Personally not going to get it at launch ( =( ), only because I have my senior project for college due by semester's end. I don't want any distractions. I'm gonna pick it up Christmas - Early Jan. if I can, though.
I'm a little disappointed, though...the games (launch window) are looking great, but Nintendo could have definitely made a more noticeable improvement on the hardware as compared to PS360 and priced it similarly. I don't have any hard facts for this, but considering the price of the tablet controller, Nintendo really could have came out hitting hard with a Dreamcast type situation (and actually succeeded), and if they were really going for the hardcore sector once again, I'm really surprised they didn't pony up for better hardware. Banking on the tablet controller to make people not care so much about the hardware being not that much better is even more of a risk than the DS and Wii, imo.
I can see one situation occurring that people predicted for the Wii (that didn't happen in the end) actually taking place for the Wii U. A lot of people predicted that with a forced motion controlled system, developers would be forced to make 3rd party exclusives in a way. With the Wii selling boatloads, a lot of us expected for 3rd parties to cash in and make some nice games (exclusives) for the system. We all know what happened unfortunately. Now with the Wii U and a more traditional controller (also Nintendo chasing Bayonetta, Monster Hunter, etc), I can see developers coming to the Wii U like we thought they would with Wii. One more reason I can think of for this is that the PS360 level of hardware has definitely hit more of a plateau of awesome graphics. While the PS4 and 720 will have amazing graphics, I can see the general population being more OK with sticking with the level of graphics the Wii U, 360, and PS3 produce for a longer time...this has a lot to do with the ever increasing production costs of making games for better hardware. Hopefully we will see a lot more resurrected franchises on the Wii U because of the lower production costs (already beginning with Bayonetta 2?).
We'll see. I'm definitely in, though. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
∧ |
Forum main |
|
|