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--[E3 2012 Predict-a-ton Results! (SMERD VICTORIOUS!)]--

After an E3 conference that wrong-footed most us by purely covering the launch line-up and still keeping a lot of that information locked up tight, it's time to count the damage and lick our wounds.

Scores will be added soon. Here are the statements that proved to be true:

A) Most Likely : 2pts

01) Pre-show music = Wii will, Wii will, Rock U

02) Wii U is the name, deal with it

03) Reggie, Miyamoto, Iwata present

04) Nintendo emphasizes "deep" support for the gaming core

05) Wii U's final tablet design is what we saw on the twitter leak

06) Clickable sticks

07) Analog triggers

08) The Wii U's North American release date will be announced

09) No specs

10) No price

11) The Wii U's technical power isn't measured against the 360/PS3 in a precise way

12) Pikmin 3 trailer!

13) New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2 (or NSMB Mii) for launch

14) No mention of Zelda Wii U

15) No mention of Unreal 4 Engine

16) High profile 3rd party ports showcase the tablet controller

17) Luigi's Mansion 2 gets a release date

18) Animal Crossing 3DS gets a release date

19) Paper Mario 3DS gets a release date

20) Fire Emblem: Awakening gets a release date

21) New 3DS color/s

22) Conference ends with a surprise Wii U title

23) Pikmin 3 playable

24) Project CARS playable

25) New Super Mario Bros. Mii playable on show floor

26) Reggie looks like he wants to slap Geoff Keighley after a stupid question

B) Maybe : 4pts

01) Wii U to have a pack-in game

02) Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 for Wii U

03) Retro's new project is shown/trailered!

04) BioShock Infinite for Wii U

05) Wii U Sports!

06) Resident Evil 6 for Wii U

07) High profile 3rd party ports demonstrate graphical superiority over 360/PS3

08) Pikmin 3 to be a launch title

09) Killer Freaks to be a launch title

10) 5th Cell announces a launch title for the Wii U

11) An original 3DS Zelda game!

12) An original 3DS Metroid game!

13) Retro is making Metroid Prime 4 (or other pure Metroid game)

14) Nintendo shows a 1st party game that uses near field communication (NFC)

15) Batman: Arkham Asylum gets new features/content on the tablet

16) Darksiders II gets new features/content on the tablet

17) 3DS Castlevania is shown

18) Hi-def Zelda compilation on Wii U

19) DS titles in the Wii U's virtual console

20) GameCube titles in the Wii U's virtual console

21) Wii Motion+ and Nunchuk bundled with every Wii U

22) User created content highlighted for future Wii U games

23) DLC and patching capability from launch

24) Monster Games bring a new racer

25) Wii U/3DS connectivity is demonstrated

26) Netflix/Hulu services highlighted for tablet and TV

27) A brand new 'evergreen' casual game for the 3DS

28) WIi U Fit

29) Wii U to launch in November (thanks Ubisoft!)

30) Mario Kart Wii U teaser

31) US version of Professor Layton vs Ace Attorney shown!

32) Epic Mickey 2 gets Wii U version

33) Tablet controller can be used as eBook reader

34) Reggie actually strikes Geoff Keighley, could be a playful tap

C) I guess it's possible... : 6 pts

01) The Wii U's operating system co-designed by Google

02) A secret feature of the Wii U hardware is revealed

03) Teaser trailer for Smash Bros. Wii U/3DS

04) Two tablets can be used at the same time

05) Valve game/services announced for Wii U

06) Wuhu Island is built into the console

07) Street Pass portable device for Wii U

08) Online system roughly equivalent to MS/Sony's machines (no details)

09) Exclusive new Resident Evil game for Wii U

10) Monolith Soft's new game is shown

11) GTA V

12) Wii U's price is announced as under $300

13) Wii U's price is announced as over $300

14) Dragon Quest X - hi-def Wii U version seen for the first time!

15) New teaser for an actual Wii U Zelda

16) Exclusive Final Fantasy 25th anniversary game for U/3DS

17) Wii U to feature achievements

18) Ability to transfer your Wii VC and WiiWare titles to the Wii U

19) Wiimote to have improved technology

20) Improved sensor bar

21) Nintendo introduces a brand new IP

22) Asymmetric multiplayer showcased in a new Nintendo published title

23) Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask remake for 3DS announced

24) WaveRace returns!

25) Crytek support

26) A new 3D Mario title from EAD Tokyo!

27) Design your own Mario levels with the tablet and share online

28) Official Nintendo hard drive for the Wii U

29) The tablet range is confirmed to be more than your living room

30) Wii U to launch before November

31) Eminem

32) Wii U's touchscreen to have tactile feedback

33) Retro's game playable on the showfloor!

34) Reggie dragon suplexes Geoff Keighley onto a balance board

D) MEGATON : 10 pts

01) Mario and Sonic platformer/adventure game!

02) Android Market for Wii U

03) 3DS Lite

04) Pokemon MMO

05) Some Nintendo games to be playable on non-Nintendo hardware

06) Square-Enix announces a Nintendo IP project

07) An online-centric 1st party game is announced

08) The return of F-Zero (in Nintendo Land... yay?)

09) Steam on Wii U

10) Eternal Darkness 2

11) Retro's game an original IP

12) Monster Hunter 4 - Quatro (or sequel) for Wii U

13) Vitality Sensor lives!

14) The show begins as Miyamoto plays the tablet like a keytar: Wii Music 2 - boom!

15) Actual Hideo Kojima support

16) Positive comments/confirmation of UE4 on Wii U

17) Wii U more than 2 times the power of current consoles (probably but not confirmed)

18) Chrono series returns!

19) Earthbound series returns! / Mother 3 official release

20) Geoff Keighley disappears in mysterious circumstances, Reggie has 'convenient' alibi

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Posted: 06/09/12, 17:29:24  - Edited by 
 on: 06/10/12, 14:25:39
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We had 30 entries.

The winner is likely to be whoever chose the least answers from C and D. :p
Posted: 06/09/12, 17:32:12  - Edited by 
 on: 06/09/12, 17:40:49
I'd like to challenge C08. Miiverse looks more in-depth than PSN.
Posted: 06/09/12, 23:13:19
Wouldn't Killer Freaks being a launch title still sort of count since now it's ZombiU?
Posted: 06/09/12, 23:56:46

I endorse both of these suggestions. (But I know nothing about PSN. Miiverse is gonna be huuuuge-ah!)
Posted: 06/10/12, 01:36:22
Our elite team of judges cite the lack of concrete details about the Wii U's online system, and the fact that Killer Freaks was effectively cancelled and replaced by a game with a different name and different content, ie. Zombi U.

There are quite a few statements that we may look back and consider as true, but unless they've been fully substantiated during this E3 they can't be considered an accurate prediction of what happened during these few days.
Posted: 06/10/12, 01:36:45
Guys remember the 17th rule of the E3 Predict-a-ton... no complaining about IWs interpretations! A lot of this stuff is not black and white.
Posted: 06/10/12, 01:48:59
Man, my score is going to be bad. Hopefully, it'll be the worst, because then it will still be notable.
Posted: 06/10/12, 01:55:18
Think I got a good score. Felt so weak not picking many C or Ds though.
Posted: 06/10/12, 02:04:00

I figured now was the time to speak up or forever hold my peace. 300,000 XP would put me back at the top, you know...
Posted: 06/10/12, 03:10:47
Didn't go into the red! Alright. Not a great score overall though.
Posted: 06/10/12, 03:26:59
I'm pretty sure I didn't win. I was at least hoping that my wildcard would come true: GBA VC games for the 3DS.
Posted: 06/10/12, 03:47:32
Negative 100 if my spreadsheet has been designed correctly.

But this is the NEGATIVE world. Which means negative points are what you want. so 100 points. Beat that chumps!
Posted: 06/10/12, 04:13:58
@Secret_Tunnel You're still at the top! But if you intend to remain there well... GOOD LUCK.

Posted: 06/10/12, 04:57:35
Results time! With massive thanks to Shadowlink for setting up a spreadsheet to calculate the scores this year, that certainly saved me a couple of hours.


In time honored tradition most of us managed to get negative points, but a few scored above zero and on top of that pile with a meagre but majestic 14 points, it's Smerd!

1ST PLACE: Smerd 14

2ND: Renjaku 12
3RD: MilotheMayor 6
JOINT 4TH: gojira and V_s 2

Tranquilo -2
FINIos -7
canonj -10
Secret_Tunnel -14
nate38 -14
Abdooooo -20
MikeD487 -22
Het_Nkik -22
Brick -24
anon_mastermind -26
Cryojin -32
DrFinkelstein -42
Zero -54
ludist210 -56
Anand -58
infinitywave -64
Luther -70
kriswright -78
Mop it up -82
Shadowlink -100
Marsh -108
sirmastersephiroth -112
Mr_Mustache -136
roykoopa64 -164
Mrs_Mustache -218



- The maximum possible score this year was 112 points.

- The Eternal Optimist award goes to roykoopa64 for making the most predictions: 68

- The wrong answers that were picked most often were: "Wii U to have a pack-in game" - 27 times, and "Animal Crossing 3DS gets a release date" - 26 times

- The correct answers we missed the most were: "User created content highlighted for future Wii U games" which only 4 people picked, and "5th Cell announces a launch title for the Wii U" which was picked 5 times. Both came true thanks to Scribblenauts Unlimited.

- The most predictably correct answer turned out to be "Reggie, Miyamoto, Iwata present" and "Pikmin 3 trailer!" which were both correctly predicted 29 times.

- The most predictably wrong answers were "Mario and Sonic platformer/adventure game!", "The show begins as Miyamoto plays the tablet like a keytar" and "Chrono series returns!" which no-one predicted at all.

- A conservative approach won the day. The people who made the fewest predictions scored the highest.

- The statement "Wii U more than 2 times the power of current consoles" was not sufficiently established as true for the purposes of this challenge, although it almost certainly is judging by the spec rumors and different people's evaluations of them. However that didn't change the outcome, Smerd would just have won by more points if it had been. :)


Thanks to everyone for playing!
Posted: 06/10/12, 14:24:38  - Edited by 
 on: 06/10/12, 14:30:46

I'll hold onto the sheet for next year. Should be pretty easy to adjust it now!
Posted: 06/10/12, 14:54:40
Holy GOD. At least grade us on a curve!

What the Smerd...
Posted: 06/10/12, 15:02:05
At first I thought that was a hyphen. Now I understand its a negative sign. Ugh!
Posted: 06/10/12, 16:07:50
I'm 2nd AGAIN?

Posted: 06/10/12, 16:10:36  - Edited by 
 on: 06/10/12, 16:12:59
Renjaku said:
I'm 2nd AGAIN?


And the Always The Bridesmaid award goes to...
Posted: 06/10/12, 16:15:02
"A conservative approach won the day."

That's always the case with these. In fact, if you played but made no predictions whatsoever then you would've placed 6th with 0 points! Remember this next year, folks.
Posted: 06/10/12, 17:34:43  - Edited by 
 on: 06/10/12, 23:57:41
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