I thought that Rock Band came into being because GH only had guitars, and so they were the first to add the other instruments. But then GH added more instruments too. And then now there's keyboard, and Pro Mode.
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I'm thinking that right now out there are these categories of music games:
1) Standard Rhythm-matching skill - push the button as it crosses the line
Beatmania
DDR
GH/RB
DJ Hero(?)
Taiko Drum Master
DJ Max Fever (PSP)
Space Channel 5
Samba de Amigo
2) "Instrument emulator"
Karaoke Revolution/SingStar/Sing It
Jam Sessions
GH/RB in harder modes - note-for-note emulation
Daigasso Band Bros - I love this because it's like real ensemble playing, when you hit a wrong note/rhythm, you hear it. unlike the "plunk" of standard GH/RB... the beauty (or torture) of midi.
3) Music Creator
GH/RB creation mode
Daigasso Band Bros creation mode.
WIi Music - well, more like remixing/making variations.
KORG DS-10
Mario Paint music creator
WarioWare DIY music creator
That one PSP game that was all hip-hop-ish music... and some rapper (or producer) was endorsing it?
4) Oddball match-the-music-somehow
Frequency/Amplitude/Rock Band Unplugged(PSP)
EBA
Ontamarama - been so long, I
Rhythm Heaven
Electroplankton
We Cheer
Just Dance
Dance Central
Bit Trip
Beat Sketcher
I think #1 & #2 longest longevity because they're skill-based so you can hold contests/DLC. And they can ride the coattails of the soundtrack. Which you can tell by how many sequels they have...
The #3 "creator" category is like a once-in-a-blue-moon type thing (except now it got incorporated in GH/RB), but lasts because people keep making content. (look at all the Mario Paint stuff on youtube). Hard to market a "forever" product though.
#4 is the most fun to try for me though. They're not foreseeable and feel more innovative. The problem with those is longevity though, since they're usually a bit obscure and don't sell quite as well.
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I can't really think of where the music genre can go, if we're already on trying to teach instruments already. Gotta be oddball things... like that one where you kill monsters by playing a riff on the guitar? Classical music is one thing that's barely been touched, but I don't think there's much demand for that. Are they going to try to teach composition? Like Wii Music has a neat section where it teaches you the basics of the beats/structure of the different styles of songs.
I liked Wii Music. It's kinda like when you tap along with a song on a radio. But when you tap in the game to change up the rhythm you get different notes. It can draw you in if you think in that key, but not if you're some sort of alternative music fan that doesn't think that way. The problem with the game is that it's not alluring though. I had tons of fun once I was playing it, and making variations by changing every track. But I'd never have the actual URGE to put it into the Wii. (Still think it's a good game, and great for educational purposes)
I thought it was interesting that RB Unplugged was just like Freq/Amplitude. Glad that idea got a second chance! I actually don't really care for regular GH/RB, I thought the guitar was stupid when I first tried it (I got the game for the drums).
@GameDadGrant There's a couple games similar in idea to EBA, but they're they're not quite as marketable or challenging. (We Cheer, Cartoon Conductor, tweenie shovelware).