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"Not-E3" 2022 Predict-a-ton! RESULTS!!
September 20, 2022, 04:09
What a weird year it was for Nintendo Directs. We started getting back into the swing of things but when E3 2022 was cancelled, we all hoped Nintendo would still stick to the usual schedule and provide us with a news blowout in June. That didn’t happen. However we did get a Nintendo Direct Mini: Partner Showcase at the end of June and then a slew of announcements in July and into early August. It was in early-September when we finally received a truly new and fully stocked Nintendo Direct. Well over forty games were mentioned. However all this made for a very peculiar situation regarding the Predict-a-ton. What is seen as a game meant to hype up E3 for the week or two before turned into something that stretched well beyond the intended timeline.

This year’s version of the game is going to be a bit different. It was created prior to the June mini-showcase, and that display counts towards points. However so does the September direct that happened just the other week. There were a handful of items in the game which were revealed or confirmed in between these two Directs. I am pretty convinced that there’s a chance we would have seen those announcements in a full June direct if they had one, since a majority of these announcements were coming in early July. So for any of those categories, I gave a half point, instead of a negative point. I understand that this is a rule change that occurred after the fact and this decision may ruffle some feathers, but I can assure you that doing this did not change who ultimately won at Negative World or in the overall rankings. It did shake around some people, but in many instances it just shifts around one or two groupings of folks. Nonetheless, I am posting the results in BOTH forms so that you can choose which one to agree with.

This write-up is a NegativeWorld.org ONLY version of the Predict-a-ton, naturally. On my blog you’ll find all the cohesive results for everyone who played, whether it was via NegativeWorld.org or not. That blog post will be shared elsewhere if anyone's interested. I'll need to tackle that next. With all this out of the way, lets take a look at the results.


A) Expected : 2 pts

01) Mario Strikers: Battle League DLC Explained

02) New Mario Kart 8 Deluxe DLC Courses Coming In June

03) Bayonetta 3 Release Date confirmed

04) New amiibo revealed

05) Splatoon 3 Trailer

06) Two or more new Nintendo-exclusive Nindies announced (timed exclusive OK)

07) Advance Wars 1+2 Re-Boot Camp gets a new date

08) A new trailer for The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild’s Sequel

09) Nintendo’s core presentation features over 30 different games

10) Trailer for the Super Mario Bros. Movie Shown

B) Rumored : 4 pts

01) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild gets an unveiled title and/or release date

02) Mario Party Superstars DLC Announced

03) Daisy confirmed for Mario Strikers: Battle League

04) SteamWorld-related Gaming News

05) Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope gets a Release Date

06) New Main-line Fire Emblem Game Revealed

07) Nintendo Switch Online adds a New Console type

08) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker and/or The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess get Switch Releases

09) Pokken Tournament 2 Unveiled

10) Additional Sports (besides Golf) coming to Nintendo Switch Sports

C) High risk : 6 pts

01) New 18+ Nintendo LEGO set unveiled

02) New Metroid Prime 4 Trailer

03) New improvements to the Nintendo Online App

04) Hollow Knight: Silk Song gets a release date

05) The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages/Seasons Remake Announced

06) Classic ‘Non-Nintendo’ franchise sees a Switch port

07) New Characters also coming as part of the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course DLC

08) New ‘Mario-based’ RPG unveiled

09) Game which released over 18 months ago receives substantial new surprise DLC

10) New Themes for the Switch System

D) MEGATON : 10 pts

01) Some kind of new special edition or promo Nintendo Switch hardware

02) Metroid Prime 4 confirmed for 2023

03) New core Super Mario title announced (platformer)

04) GameBoy Mini console is unveiled

05) Xbox Collaboration: New Banjo-Kazooie and/or Goldeneye Game

06) Super Mario Bros. 35 Returns from the dead!

07) Monolith Soft’s new IP Revealed

08) Animal Crossing DLC will continue!

09) Nintendo announces a cross-over promotion with either Fortnite or Fall Guys

10) Super Mario RPG hits the NSO Service


Bonus Prediction : (OPTIONAL)

These franchises haven't seen a new game entry in a while. WIN or LOSE 50 points by picking one to be announced. Remember, this is optional!

Choose from: 1080 Snowboarding, Banjo-Kazooie (via Microsoft), Donkey Kong, Duck Hunt, Earthbound, Eternal Darkness, Excite, F-Zero, Golden Sun, Ice Climbers, Kid Icarus, NES Remix, Nintendogs, Paper Mario, Pikmin, Professor Layton, Punch-Out!!, Rhythm Heaven, Ring Fit, Star Fox, Star Tropics, Wario Land, Wave Race, Wii Fit.


Last year it was T-Bun who won, but this year I need to highlight a particular quote from that thread.

You see.. it’s because…

FIRST PLACE: Zero: 43 pts (w/ 0.5s; 40 pts in classic style)

SECOND PLACE: V_s: 13 pts (w/ 0.5s; 4 pts in classic style)

THIRD PLACE: Brick 4 pts (w/ 0.5s; -2 pts in classic style)

4th Place: Secret_Tunnel: 2 pts (w/ 0.5s; -10 pts in classic style)

5th Place: Infinitywave: -10 pts (w/ 0.5s; -16 pts in classic style)

6th Place: DrFinkelstein: -11 pts (w/ 0.5s; -26 pts in classic style)

7th Place: ShadowLink: -13 pts (w/ 0.5s); Mop it up: -38 pts (in classic style)

8th Place: Mop it up: -26 pts (w/ 0.5s); TriforceBun: -56 pts (in classic style)

9th Place: TriforceBun: -47 pts (w/ 0.5s); ShadowLink: -58 pts (in classic style)

10th Place: TheBigG753: -53 pts (w/ 0.5s; -74 in classic style)

11th Place: Brandon: -116 (w/ 0.5s; -122 in classic style)

12th Place: Anand: -175 (w/ 0.5s; -196 in classic style)

Zero clinched the win but with an astounding lead! Rolling the dice on Pikmin paid off. Anand rolling the dice in Donkey Kong, Ring Fit, and Wave Race did not. I like the cut of your jib though Anand! I wished they announced new games in all those series! Hopefully the duality here on the scoring isn’t too confusing. Another way to summarize things is that no matter if it’s factoring in the extra points or not, the top six players stayed the same and so did the bottom three players. It’s only ShadowLink, Mop it up, and TriforceBun who get shaken up, and even then, it’s not severely. As I did last year, let’s see a few superlatives shall well? I only did these for the 0.5 point version. I have other things to do today than to run those numbers twice, lol.


The ‘Pre-Order Bonus’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the most and also came true.

(A) A new trailer for The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild’s Sequel
(B) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (sequel) gets an unveiled title and/or release date
(C) Classic Non-Nintendo franchise sees a Switch port
(D) No Class-D options came true, not even SMRPG on NSO… :(

I’m not surprised the name and release date unveiling of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom ended up happening and being so confidently chosen. Last year, this very idea won the Captain Blubber Award! Great to see it no longer taking that one home.


The ‘Captain Blubber’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the most but it didn’t come true, thus causing the most upset.

(A) Advance Wars 1+2 Re-Boot Camp gets a new date
(B) Additional Sports (besides Golf) coming to Nintendo Switch Sports
(C) New Metroid Prime 4 Trailer
(D) Super Mario RPG hits the NSO Service

All of these most hopeful misses would have been incredible additions to the Nintendo Direct. While I hope that Advance Wars doesn’t have to wait until February or even next E3 for its release date, I could see the all of these coming true within the next year, or even as soon as February.


The ‘7th Generation Booster’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the least, and thus signifies what people thought was the craziest option to go with.

Mario Party Superstars DLC Announced (0 votes)
Pokken Tournament 2 Unveiled (0 votes)
New 18+ Nintendo LEGO set unveiled (0 votes)
New Characters also coming as part of the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course DLC (0 votes)
New Themes for the Switch System (0 votes)
Super Mario Bros. 35 Returns from the dead! (0 votes)
Monolith Soft’s new IP Revealed (0 votes)
Animal Crossing DLC will continue! (0 votes)

Wow, there were a LOT of categories this year which nobody voted for. Probably the highest amount of such categories in the history of this game. I suppose the NSO additions of the original three Mario Party games negates the use of DLC for Superstars. In fact, DLC hopes were low in general on this one. Nobody believed that a Pokken Tournament sequel would show, nor anything new from Monolith Soft. Mario 35 is still dead as a doornail. Technically between the two Nintendo Directs that cool Bowser puppet LEGO set was announced. I didn’t give points for it because I don’t believe it would have been announced in a Direct, plus nobody voted for it anyway so my decision doesn’t skew any results.


The ‘Fence Swinger‘ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, and it paid off.

Winner: Zero (+/- 68 possible points)

Of all the lot sizes, Zero was right at the median (off by 1 point). So it’s nice to see someone win this while not going too conservative. We’ll see next just how it doesn’t pay off to fly too close to the sun though.


The ‘Brawl Tripper’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, but it did not work out.

Winner: Anand from NegativeWorld.org (+/- 228 possible points)

Runners up in this category would be Brandon (+/- 146 points) and TheBigG753 (+/- 110 points). Anand won this category last year. You’ve got some big hopes and I appreciate you for them!


The ‘Link’s Crossbow Training’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the best accuracy in their voting choices. They had the most correct answers regardless of point values won or lost.

Winner: V_s and Secret_Tunnel (tied with 72.5% accuracy)

Whether it being there or not, these two individuals were the most accurate in their yes or no answers. For this award, any of those 0.5 pointers were considered a hit, and I didn’t include the accuracy of the franchise optional bonus. Since not everyone participates in that, it makes more sense to waive it from the percentages.


The ‘Switzerland’ Award:

This award is for the contestants who managed to net a neutral score of 0 points.

Winner: Nobody!

This year, nobody managed to even out to zero,… despite Zero winning… but with more than zero points… it’s a bit convoluted.


The ‘Metroid Dread’ Award:

This award is for the franchise that people most voted for in the optional bonus but it didn’t show up; thus a missing in action title.

Winner: Donkey Kong, Wario Land, and Wave Race in a Three-Way tie!

This year people were really clamoring that Donkey Kong rumor to be true, but they also clearly want some Wario platforming and excellent wave physics. Sadly, none of this came true. We have no idea when we’ll ever see games in these franchises again. Keep hoping (and writing your local Nintendongress Person).


Well, that about sums up everything up this year. Yeah, it was a bit weird, but I still enjoyed it. I hope you did too. We’ll see how things go next year. One hopes Nintendo will do a traditional direct… Thank you for your participation and time! This kind of game isn’t possible without individuals like yourself taking the time to fill the survey out. So much of the fun that surrounds E3 for me is the hype and speculation of it. While this year Nintendo skewered those expectations, games like this still helped me feel that kinship I felt in past years with you all. Regardless of how pleased you were at the showcase, or your own score here, I do hope you’re going to have fun playing games real soon. There is certainly something for everyone to enjoy and I hope you’re able to find and play games that bring you joy.

Be safe. Be happy. Spread love. Game on!

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09/20/22, 04:09   Edited:  09/20/22, 04:06
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I won? I didn't get last place like usual?!

Posted by 
 on: 09/20/22, 04:20   Edited:  09/20/22, 04:22
Nice job Zero! I sure fell quite a bit thanks to my 50 point guess being a big ol' whiff.

Thanks for putting this together Fink!

Posted by 
 on: 09/20/22, 04:32   Edited:  09/20/22, 04:32
I think I remember V_s and I getting the Link's Crossbow Training award in previous years too! We should add up all the points from all the years...

Posted by 
 on: 09/20/22, 06:23

Posted by 
 on: 09/20/22, 17:42

This wouldn't surprise me terribly considering how conservatively I usually predict, lol.

Thanks for doing this once again, DrFinkelstein! Especially appreciate the extra work that went into the extra awards and dual scoring system considering the unorthodox nature of the reveals this year.

Posted by 
 on: 09/20/22, 20:45
Screw Classic style! New Style FTW!

Posted by 
 on: 09/21/22, 02:02
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