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E3 2021 Predict-a-ton! RESULTS!!
by 
(Editor)
June 20, 2021, 06:37
 
The wonderful time of year known as E3 has finally come to a close. This year was a peculiar one, with all events taking place virtually. There was no show floor and off-screen footage; no live interviews; no wondrous Nintendo-themed landscape cultivated on the cold carpet of a vast convention center. For some companies this was a bit of a departure, though the show has gone more in the direction of being ‘pre-prepared’ more and more in recent years. Nintendo was pretty comfortable with their presentation. They had a thirty-nine-or-so minute presentation at their usual time slot. Afterwards were many hours of live Nintendo Treehouse coverage of games. The only difference was that hosts sat farther apart. Otherwise, you never would have known they were taking pandemic-related precautions. There was even the usual slew of information that you wonder why it wasn’t noted in the Direct itself as it would have made the initial presentation of a title a lot more interesting.


The art above is some E3-announcement-related fan art of Samus from Metroid Dread. Check out more from artist Matt Young at his Twitter or Instagram accounts!


This write-up is a NegativeWorld.org ONLY version of the Predict-a-ton, naturally. I posted the full results where every participant was included at my blog. You can find that post here. That said, below is most of the same content, but just focusing on the fifteen fantastic folks who participated this year. In total though, I had 48 different participants this year. There were more entries than this but a slew of them were anonymous and well, there’s no point in reporting those since I A.) can’t share that information with the individual and B.) can’t be sure that people aren’t doubling up responses. In fact, one anonymous individual had the exact same long description detailing their decision to be anonymous, down to the emoji. Not every entry of theirs was the same, so how could I know what was their intent. It just appeared spammy. Then one of the last entries of the set was from someone who went by the name, “WHAT THE HELL IS E3” and then their Optional Bonus Game pick was “F*** YOU”. Isn’t the internet just a bundle of mystery? Let’s continue on to the genuine participants and see how everything shook out.

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A) Expected : 2 pts

01) A New Smash Bros. DLC Fighter is Revealed

02) Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl include Platinum content

03) Age of Calamity DLC Pack 1 thoroughly explained

04) New amiibo revealed

05) Splatoon 3 makes an appearance and gets elaborated on

06) Two or more new Nintendo-exclusive Nindies announced (timed exclusive OK)

07) Animal Crossing: New Horizons gets Zelda-specific content

08) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2 finally detailed

09) Nintendo’s core presentation features over 35 different games

10) Mother 3 does NOT get revealed!


B) Rumored : 4 pts

01) A New Smash Bros. DLC Fighter Will Launch The Week of E3

02) Super Mario Party Sequel Announced

03) New Donkey Kong Game Revealed

04) Super Nintendo Switch (or equivalent Switch Pro) gets revealed!

05) Sequel Announced to Mario + Rabbids

06) Metroid Prime Trilogy is coming to Switch in 2021!

07) Samus Aran Comes to Fortnite

08) The Legend of Zelda: 3D All-Stars Coming to Switch (or equivalent combo pack)

09) Monolith Soft’s newest game gets revealed

10) Something new from the Kirby series appears



C) High risk : 6 pts

01) Nintendo Switch Online adds a New Console type

02) New 2D Mario Game

03) Previously unannounced new mobile game from Nintendo

04) New Karts and/or features for Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit

05) The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages/Seasons Remake Announced

06) Metroid Prime 4 Gameplay Revealed

07) Bayonetta 3 Gameplay Revealed

08) Nintendo Online App Gets A Functionality Overhaul

09) Game which released over 18 months ago receives substantial new surprise DLC

10) New Fire Emblem Game Announced



D) MEGATON : 10 pts

01) Special Edition: Zelda-themed Switch Pro

02) Major previously Xbox or PS exclusive game hits the Switch

03) Labo VR Mode announced for Pokemon Snap

04) Xbox Game Pass comes to Nintendo Switch

05) Metroid Prime 4 Releases This Year

06) Bayonetta 3 Releases This Year

07) New “Nintendo Classic” mini console (any console besides the NES and SNES count)

08) ‘Mother 3’ Finally Coming!

09) Mario Kart 9 (or equivalent) is unveiled

10) Reggie Fils Aime returns to E3!


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Bonus Prediction : (OPTIONAL)

These franchises haven't seen a new game entry in a while. WIN or LOSE 50 points by picking one to be announced. Remember, this is optional!

Choose from: 1080 Snowboarding, Advance Wars, Eternal Darkness, Excite, F-Zero, Golden Sun, Ice Climbers, Kid Icarus, Nintendogs, Pikmin, Punch-Out!!, Rhythm Heaven, Star Fox, Star Tropics, Wario, Wave Race.

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Last time we did this, in 2018, it was Ploot who won, but this year... things are different.

FIRST PLACE:TriforceBun: 26 pts

SECOND PLACE: Secret_Tunnel: 0 pts


Third Place (tie): Brick and V_s: -8 pts

Smerd: -26 pts
Mop it up: -28 pts
TheBigG753: -28 pts
Pokefreak911: -32 pts
Ploot: -36 pts
DrFinkelstein: -40 pts
Zero: -60 pts
ShadowLink: -62 pts
Anand: -84 pts
InfinityWave: -100 pts
LegendOfAlex: -152 pts


So there it is. The big list. Are you satisfied with your placement? When I look at a low score, I don’t think of it as a bad thing. I think of it as someone who was a wishful thinker and hoped for the best! Plus I appreciate the tenacity of anyone who put down that many options. This spread is pretty typical of what past years have looked like. Getting a positive score in this game is not common. In fact, this year, the optional bonus game franchise picks worth 50 points really helped sway some results for folks. We had two franchises get named, which is a bit unprecedented. I didn’t risk such a thing and I had a glorious -40 score myself, four points worse than the person who won it all last time, Ploot. Now, in classic GoldenEye or Perfect Dark fashion, here’s some random awards (Negative World only edition!).

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The ‘Pre-Order Bonus’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the most and also came true.

Winners:
(A) A New Smash Bros. DLC Fighter is Revealed
(B) Super Mario Party Sequel Announced
(C) N/A. No C-options came true.
(D) Major previously Xbox or PS exclusive game hits the Switch

Amazingly enough, more people were convinced a Smash reveal was happening than they were convinced Mother 3 was not going to appear at E3.

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The ‘Captain Blubber’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the most but it didn’t come true, thus causing the most upset.

Winner: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2 finally detailed

Most people, 87% of Negative World participants, expected that the sequel to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild would see significant details. Instead, we saw another teaser trailer. Other similar upsets from other categories were the lack of a Pokemon, Splatoon, and Kirby presence. In fact, in general, Negative World was more reserved when it came to Metroid and Bayonetta. We've been burned before. lol

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The ‘7th Generation Booster’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the least, and thus signifies what people thought was the craziest option to go with.

Winners:
Labo VR Mode announced for Pokemon Snap (0 votes)
Metroid Prime 4 Releases This Year (0 votes)
Reggie Fils Aime returns to E3! (0 votes)

We all knew that Metroid Prime 4 was definitely not coming in 2021. We also know that Labo VR is not going to be supported for anything cool. Lastly, we know who Reggie Fils-Aime is... and thus we know why he wouldn't be showing up.

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The ‘Fence Swinger‘ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, and it paid off.

Winner: TriforceBun (+/- 102 possible points)

This year only one person got greater than 0 points, so of course this award also goes to TriforceBun. 102 points is a truly risky and wide swath of opportunity.

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The ‘Brawl Tripper’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, but it did not work out.

Winner: Anand from NegativeWorld.org (+/- 224 possible points)

Runners up in this category would be LegendOfAlex (+/- 168 points) and InfinityWave (+/- 112 points). Anand won this category both when looking at just Negative World, and when looking at all contestants.

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The ‘Link’s Crossbow Training’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the best accuracy in their voting choices. They had the most correct answers regardless of point values won or lost.

Winner: Secret_Tunnel (87.3% accuracy)

Playing it close to the chest helped Secret_Tunnel nab a few awards this year. However two others were able to nab accuracy rates of over 80%. Those are Brick and V_s, both with accuracy rates of 84%.

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The ‘Switzerland’ Award:

This award is for the contestants who managed to net a neutral score of 0 points.

Winner: Secret_Tunnel

One additional user (outside of Negative World) pulled off the same feat.

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The ‘Metroid Dread’ Award:

This award is for the franchise that people most voted for in the optional bonus but it didn’t show up; thus a missing in action title.

Winner: Pikmin (with 2 votes; 33% of all optional game votes)

WarioWare's reveal counted against the Wario pick in this category, but Wario had received just one vote (17%) from Negative Worlders. Advance Wars also saw one vote (17%). The remaining 33% of votes went to a pick for the Excite series and a pick for the Wave Race series. If only... *sigh*.

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Well, that about sums up everything I think I wanted to accomplish with this game. I do hope you had fun considering the choices. I had a lot of fun writing them up and putting this all together. Thank you for your participation and time! This kind of game wouldn’t be possible without individuals like yourself taking the time to fill the survey out. So much of the fun that surrounds E3 for me is the hype and speculation of it. Games like this can help bring folks together in that endeavor. Regardless of how pleased you were at the showcase, or your own score here, I do hope you’re going to have fun playing games real soon. There is certainly something for everyone to enjoy and I hope you’re able to find and play games that bring you joy.

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Posted: 06/20/21, 06:37  - Edit:  06/20/21, 06:36
 
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Well into the negatives as usual!

Posted by 
 on: 06/20/21, 07:33
YEAHHHH ADVANCE WARS WON IT FOR ME

Thanks for doing this contest Fink. Fun as always...!

Zero said:
Well into the negatives as usual!
NegativeWorld strikes again!

Posted by 
 on: 06/20/21, 07:47  - Edit:  06/20/21, 07:48
Negative double figures! I am still an optimist, confirmed.

Congrats on the win TBun!

Posted by 
 on: 06/20/21, 15:48
There actually was a new mobile game announced. It's a Pokémon MOBA called Pokémon Unite.

Posted by 
 on: 06/20/21, 19:10
@Brick

I'm pretty sure that was announced in a previous Pokemon Presents.

Yeah, checking news from the past. It has been known for a while. I think it only just got release date news though.

Article about the game from DroidGamers.com

Posted by 
 on: 06/20/21, 21:55
We suck, haha.

Thanks for running this DrFink!

Posted by 
 on: 06/21/21, 00:28
Yay! 4th place ! Zelda burned me but that’s ok. Congrats bun !

This was fun as per usual. We rock.

Posted by 
 on: 06/21/21, 01:43
@DrFinkelstein

Well shit. First I even heard of it lol

Posted by 
 on: 06/21/21, 06:19
I actually did ok, purely because everyone did bad this year.

Posted by 
 on: 06/21/21, 10:43
DrFinkelstein said:
When I look at a low score, I don’t think of it as a bad thing. I think of it as someone who was a wishful thinker and hoped for the best!

Heh. Suckers! My Predict-a-ton strategy is the same every year: simply get a positive score and let other people's optimism work against them. If it wasn't for that meddling Advance Wars remake, it would have worked too!

Awesome writeup Fink, this was fun! Thanks for running this every year.

Posted by 
 on: 06/21/21, 19:43
@Secret_Tunnel

You're welcome! Glad your strategy works out for you.

@Brick

I think it was the same showing for New Pokemon Snap. Perhaps that news just overshadowed everything else.

@Smerd

Zelda burned a lot of us! Oi! I hope we learn the name and more details before the end of the year at least. Game Awards perhaps? Or maybe that'll go to Prime 4.

Posted by 
 on: 06/21/21, 23:37
Man, what a freakin' bloodbath! Twitter totally kicked NW's ass! I'm so curious about the anonymous entries... AI bots, perhaps? Who haven't self-realized yet?

Anyway, thanks for putting in the work, Fink! Great writeup. I love the bonus prizes. They're the only prizes I could ever hope to win!

DrFinkelstein said:


----------


The ‘Brawl Tripper’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, but it did not work out.

Winner: Anand from NegativeWorld.org (+/- 224 possible points)

Runners up in this category would be LegendOfAlex (+/- 168 points) and InfinityWave (+/- 112 points). Anand won this category both when looking at just Negative World, and when looking at all contestants.

----------




...but you gotta dream big.

Unless you want to game the system like Secret_Tunnel!

I might do that next year, too...

Posted by 
 on: 06/23/21, 18:54  - Edit:  06/23/21, 19:02
@Anand

AI might make sense. Two days ago I noticed I had yet another one of those same weird entries with the same long way of stating they were anonymous. So I locked the forms page. So weird.

As for next year, who knows, maybe a new strategy will be a good change of pace.

Posted by 
 on: 06/24/21, 04:12
Thanks as always for running this, DrFinkelstein!

Since there are no prizes or anything for this then I think playing it safe is boring, it's more fun to go wild and win or lose big!

Thinking back, I'm actually not sure why I didn't guess "Wario" for the returning franchise part. I had even heard about the surveys Nintendo were sending out to select people, asking how much they'd pay for a new WarioWare on Switch. Oh well...

Posted by 
 on: 06/24/21, 23:17
 
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